Blog
In-depth analysis and explainers on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global oil supply chains, LNG trade, and maritime security.
The Second MOU: Why This One Is Different — And What Happens Next
Both presidents signed this time, the route dispute has a fix with real coordinates, and the US conceded the central question of who controls Hormuz. Here's what changed since June 17 — and what still hasn't.
Iran's Endgame: The Economic War That Was Never About Winning Militarily
Reuters reporting on Iranian strategic thinking reveals a deliberate bet: sustain the Hormuz blockade past $4 gas and past November's midterms, and Trump's political exposure forces concessions Iran can't win militarily.
When All Three Routes Close: The Damietta Strike and the End of Safe Passage
A drone strike on Egypt's Damietta LNG port has put the Suez Canal's safety in question — closing the last of three major routes that has stayed open throughout the Hormuz crisis.
When the Taps Stop: The Infrastructure War That Neither Side Can Win
US strikes on Iranian water and transport infrastructure and Iranian strikes on Gulf desalination plants have crossed a legal and humanitarian threshold — and neither side shows signs of stopping.
NATO Backed the US at Ankara. But Should It Have?
Mark Rutte called US strikes on Iran 'totally crucial' from the Ankara summit podium. But NATO has no Article 5 obligation here — and the alliance backed a war it never examined.
Iran Says No One Else Can Clear Its Mines. There's One Problem: It May Not Know Where They All Are.
Iran's 30-day demining deadline under the Islamabad MOU is already in trouble: small boats laid mines without precise records, Tehran refuses international help, and the diplomatic clock is colliding with physical reality.
Open, Closed, or Contested? The Strange New Reality of the Strait of Hormuz
Five days after the Versailles MOU, the Strait of Hormuz operates under two sets of rules simultaneously — with two parts of the Iranian government publicly disagreeing about which one applies.
The Deal That Finally Held: What's In It, What's Missing, and What Happens Next
After 106 days, six collapsed ceasefires, and a global energy crisis, Iran and the US have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Here is what the deal contains, what it defers, and why this one may finally hold.
Where Things Stand: The Deal That Won't Quite Close
101 days in, negotiators have a framework but not a signature. Here is why the gap between 'largely negotiated' and 'done' keeps refusing to close.
Three Months That Changed Everything
Ninety days after the Strait of Hormuz closed, what did everyone get wrong on day one — and why is the fundamental question still unanswered?
The Walls Closing In: How Gulf Allies and Congress Are Constraining Trump's War Options
Gulf allies blocked a U.S. strike on Iran while the Senate advanced a war powers resolution — two simultaneous constraints that are reshaping Trump's military calculus.
When Hormuz Stopped Being an Oil Story
Last Friday's simultaneous bond market selloff — record yields in Tokyo, London, and Washington — marked the moment the Hormuz crisis graduated from a commodity shock to a macro financial event.
The Most Important Meeting for Hormuz Is Happening Today — And It's Not About Hormuz
Trump landed in Beijing today with a war he can't end and a strait he can't reopen. Xi Jinping has more leverage over the Hormuz crisis than any other actor — and the question is what he will charge for using it.
One Page, Fourteen Points, Thirty Days: The Deal That Could End the Hormuz Crisis
A one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding now circulating between Washington and Tehran is the most significant diplomatic document of the Hormuz crisis. Here's what it actually contains, where the gaps remain, and what it means for the strait.
Two Coalitions, One Strait: Why Washington Just Blinked
Seven weeks after declaring 'we do not need the help of anyone,' the Trump administration is quietly recruiting nations into the Maritime Freedom Construct — a second coalition operating alongside the UK-France Northwood effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Thirty Nations in a London Suburb: The Coalition Taking Shape to Reopen Hormuz
More than 30 nations gathered at the UK's Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood for the most concrete multilateral military planning effort the Hormuz crisis has produced — almost entirely out of the headlines.
The Mine Threat That Outlasts Any Deal
Iran's second mining campaign in the Strait of Hormuz poses a threat that no ceasefire can quickly resolve. Even after a deal, mine-clearing could keep the waterway closed for months.
The Ceasefire That Keeps Collapsing: 72 Hours That Shook the Hormuz Crisis
How a promising ceasefire announcement on April 17 unraveled in just 72 hours — ships fired upon, a vessel seized, and the Strait of Hormuz shut again.
What Happens If the Strait of Hormuz Is Blocked?
A full breakdown of what happens to oil prices, global trade, and everyday consumers when the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping.
Which Countries Depend Most on Strait of Hormuz Oil?
A ranked breakdown of which countries are most vulnerable to a Strait of Hormuz disruption, from Japan and South Korea to the United States and Europe.
Strait of Hormuz vs Suez Canal: Comparing the World's Oil Chokepoints
How does the Strait of Hormuz compare to the Suez Canal? We break down capacity, vulnerability, bypass options, and global impact of the world's two most important maritime chokepoints.