Crisis Timeline
A comprehensive chronological record of every major event in the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis — from the first strikes on February 28 to today. Updated as events develop.
Last updated: July 10, 2026
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NATO Ankara declaration backs US — Spain dissents
The NATO Ankara summit concludes with a formal declaration calling on Iran to "fully respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz" and reiterating that "Iran must never have a nuclear weapon." The declaration makes no reference to the February 28 strikes that started the war, no reference to international law, and no acknowledgement that Iran was struck first. NATO forces have been shooting down Iranian drones near Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. Spain's refusal to allow US base access is the sole formal act of NATO dissent. Trump expresses disappointment with allies' response to the war.
Read full analysis →Second US strike package — Bushehr nuclear plant perimeter hit — Iran strikes Jordan
The US launches a second round of airstrikes on Iran — the second strike package in less than 24 hours, hitting approximately 90 targets. A US airstrike hits the perimeter of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant — the first time a nuclear facility has been struck in the conflict — killing at least 14 people and wounding 78. Iran responds by striking Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan with missiles and drones. Jordan intercepts eight Iranian missiles — the first Iranian strike on Jordan since the crisis began. Trump threatens to strike Iranian electric plants and desalination plants: "If we have to, we'll take them out." Legal experts note targeting civilian water and power infrastructure could constitute a war crime. Nancy Pelosi calls it "a dangerous and illegal war." Ali Khamenei buried in Mashhad.
Read full analysis →Trump declares ceasefire "over" at NATO summit in Ankara
Sitting alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the Beştepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, Trump declares the Islamabad MOU over: "I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum." He reverses Iran's oil sales licence — removing a core MOU provision — but says negotiators can "keep talking if they want." Rutte backs the US strikes: "Absolutely necessary." NATO places Iran's nuclear programme on its formal summit agenda. The EU Aviation Safety Agency tells airlines to avoid Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon airspace until August 31. Spain refuses US base access; Trump calls Spain "a worthless NATO partner."
Read full analysis →Iran attacks three ships — US launches 80+ strikes including Kharg Island
Iran attacks three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz during the Khamenei funeral period. CENTCOM launches more than 80 retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets — hitting Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, as well as Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and Qeshm Island. Trump, at the NATO summit in Ankara, says the US attacked Kharg Island and could "take it over." Iran launches drone attacks on Bahrain's Isa Air Base. Brent crude jumps 5.6% to above $78. Iran's oil sales licence reimposed by Trump.
Second US strike package overnight — Iran hits Qatar for first time
The US launches a second round of airstrikes on Iran in the early hours of July 9 — the second strike package in less than 24 hours. Iran responds by targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar with missiles and drones — the first Iranian strike on Qatar since the crisis began. Qatar had been hosting US-Iran mediation talks. Iran's chief negotiator Ghalibaf posts on X: "America still hasn't learned that bullying and breaking promises are no longer cost-free. If you strike, you'll get hit." Ali Khamenei is buried in Mashhad — the day Trump had designated as the start of resumed diplomatic talks. Total US war cost confirmed at $113.3 billion as of June 16.
Trump declares ceasefire "over" at NATO summit in Ankara
Sitting alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the Beştepe Presidential Compound in Ankara, Trump declares the Islamabad MOU over: "I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum. As far as I'm concerned it's just a waste of time." He adds: "If they had a nuclear weapon, they'd use it." Trump reverses Iran's oil sales licence — removing a core MOU provision. He says he will allow his negotiators to "keep talking if they want." NATO Secretary General Rutte backs the US strikes: "Absolutely necessary." Iran's nuclear programme placed on the NATO summit's formal agenda. The EU Aviation Safety Agency tells airlines to avoid Iran, Iraq and Lebanon airspace until August 31.
Read full analysis →Iran attacks three ships — US launches 80+ strikes including Kharg Island
Iran attacks three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on July 5-6, during the Khamenei funeral period Trump had designated as a diplomatic pause. CENTCOM launches more than 80 retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets — hitting Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, as well as Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and Qeshm Island. Trump, at the NATO summit in Ankara, says the US attacked Kharg Island and could "take it over." Iran launches drone attacks on Bahrain's Isa Air Base. Brent crude jumps 5.6% to above $78. Oil sanctions on Iran reimposed.
UK-France-Oman joint statement on southern corridor safety
France and the UK publish a joint statement confirming they will work with Oman to keep the Strait of Hormuz safe for all vessels. "The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for the global economy," the statement reads. "The Sultanate of Oman has agreed to work with the United Kingdom and France to ensure that its sovereign territorial waters are safe for navigation." Iran's deputy foreign minister Gharibabadi responds: "The security of Hormuz lies with the coastal states. Crisis-makers will be held accountable for the consequences of their adventurism."
Ghalibaf: Hormuz is Iran's "greatest strategic instrument" — will never return to pre-war status
Iran's chief negotiator Ghalibaf delivers a landmark statement on Iranian state television: through the war, God granted Iran "one of our greatest strategic instruments of power" in the Strait of Hormuz. "Sovereignty and management remain in Iran" and will be conducted in coordination with Oman and Gulf Arab states. Iran agreed not to charge transit fees for 60 days only "at the insistence of Gulf Arab states." Tehran wants "more shipping, not less — the strait becomes more valuable the more ships pass through it." A CBS News/Carnegie expert confirms that since the MOU was signed, the nuclear issue has not been tackled "in any in-depth manner, if at all." Both sides have held just two meetings in 22 days.
Khamenei funeral begins — talks formally paused until July 9
Iran begins multi-day state funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in the opening strikes of the war on February 28. Ceremonies stretch across Tehran, Qom, and Mashhad in Iran and Najaf and Karbala in Iraq. Qatar confirms the next round of US-Iran talks will be scheduled "at the earliest possible time" after the funeral processions conclude. Whether new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will appear to lead prayers for his father remains uncertain — a remarkable signal of the fragility of the new Iranian leadership. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif attends. Representatives from China and India also present.
US July 4 holiday — talks in recess
The US Independence Day holiday puts the Washington diplomatic machine on a brief pause. No new talks announced. No new incidents reported in the strait. The 60-day MOU window is now 17 days old with 43 days remaining before the August 17 deadline. Transit volumes remain at approximately 25 vessels per day — well below the pre-war average of 110. War risk insurance remains elevated. Major Western carriers remain on Cape of Good Hope routing.
UK Parliament briefing confirms Khamenei-Pezeshkian split on MOU
The House of Commons Library publishes a comprehensive briefing on the US-Iran talks confirming that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has stated he has a "different view" to elected President Pezeshkian on the June MOU. The briefing also confirms the full 14-point MOU structure — including the $300 billion reconstruction fund (paragraph 6), the IAEA down-blending mechanism for enriched uranium (paragraph 8), and the 60-day extendable window (paragraph 3). The final deal is to be endorsed by the UN Security Council, as was the 2015 JCPOA. The MOU explicitly states toll-free passage lasts "60 days only" — after which Iran and Oman will define future maritime administration.
Doha talks conclude with no progress — nuclear issue unaddressed
The Doha round of indirect US-Iran talks concludes with no sign of headway toward a lasting peace. Both sides focused on issues they said had already been resolved under the MOU — maritime traffic and frozen funds — rather than the nuclear programme that triggered the war. NPR confirms a previously unreported MOU provision: a plan for a $300 billion reconstruction and economic development fund for Iran, to be financed by "regional partners" and detailed within 60 days. Iran's lead negotiator Ghalibaf reiterates that "the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions" and that Iran will charge fees for maritime services after the 60-day toll-free window expires around August 17.
Read full analysis →Doha talks resume — US and Iran agree to continue discussions
US and Iran hold separate meetings in Qatar and agree to continue discussions. Talks remain indirect, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. The nuclear question is not on the agenda — both sides focus instead on maritime traffic management in the strait and the unfreezing of Iran's funds, two issues they said were already resolved when the MOU was signed. US envoy Witkoff attends for Washington. Iran describes the situation in the strait as "sensitive and complex." Germany's defence minister says he does not expect Germany to join mine-clearing operations, citing Iran's refusal to accept international assistance.
Traffic rebounds in Doha talks — 40 crossings Monday after attack-driven collapse
Shipping traffic through the strait rebounds to 40 crossings Monday, up from a low of just 24 on Sunday. The week's daily crossings tell the story of the crisis: 76 on June 24, falling to 59 the day Ever Lovely was attacked, then 50, 39 (the day Kiku was attacked), and 24 before recovering. Of Monday's 40 crossings, 10 used the southern Omani route coordinated by the US Navy; the rest used Iran's northern route. Peace talks resume in Doha, described as off to a "shaky start" — Iran says it has not agreed to direct meetings with US officials, only Qatari-mediated technical dialogue.
France-Iran mine clearing dispute; Israel warns of war resuming "within two days"
Iran's deputy FM Gharibabadi warns France against "provocations" after Macron says France will join Oman in clearing mines from the strait — insisting the Islamabad MOU specifies that demining is Iran's responsibility alone. Iranian President Pezeshkian posts that Tehran remains committed to the MOU "provided Washington upholds its obligations" — "mutual understanding is a two-way street." Israel warns the wider war could resume within two days if nuclear talks fail. Kushner and Witkoff arrive in Doha for technical talks; Iran says no meeting with US officials has been scheduled, only mediated dialogue through Qatar on the $6 billion in frozen funds.
Iran skips scheduled technical talks — disputes frozen funds release
Iran does not attend technical talks scheduled for Sunday, citing the weekend strikes and unmet MOU conditions. A Supreme Leader's office official tells state TV that Iran is still assessing whether Washington has fulfilled its commitments — specifically whether Iran has actual access to its unfrozen funds. Foreign Minister Araghchi, speaking in Iraq, declares: "The Strait of Hormuz remains under the total oversight and management of Iran throughout the 30 coming days," warning that any new developments will delay reopening and raise escalation. Despite the diplomatic freeze, both sides quietly agree to halt further attacks.
Read full analysis →US strikes Iran again after second ship attack — Bahrain sirens sound
Iran attacks the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku with a one-way drone near the strait. CENTCOM responds with a larger strike than Friday's — 10 Iranian military targets hit, including air defences, drone storage, cruise missiles, targeting radars, minelaying capabilities, and surface-to-air missile systems. A US official: "Iran had a chance to stop shooting... and they didn't take it." Bahrain activates air raid sirens, urging residents to take shelter. Iran responds by launching missiles and drones at US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, drawing condemnation from both Gulf states. Qatar reports a coastguard vessel with two people aboard missing at sea.
20 million barrels transit in 24 hours — new single-day record
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirms approximately 20 million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 24 hours — a new single-day record surpassing even pre-war volumes. Despite the record oil flow, vessel transit counts remain at roughly a third of pre-war levels, suggesting larger individual vessel loads rather than a full restoration of normal shipping traffic. The IRGC reiterates that safe passage is only possible through routes designated by Tehran.
Senate passes war powers resolution against Trump for first time
The US Senate passes a war powers resolution rebuking Trump over the Iran conflict — the first time the Senate has successfully passed such a resolution during the crisis. The resolution passes despite seven previous failed attempts. Trump is expected to veto it. The $67 billion Pentagon share of supplemental war funding is confirmed by the Department of Defense.
Rubio tours Gulf — toll dispute hardens
Secretary of State Rubio meets UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi, the first stop on a regional tour covering UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Rubio reiterates the US will not accept Iranian tolls: "It's an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway." Iran and Oman issue a joint statement saying they are studying "costs associated" with services provided in the strait, emphasising their sovereignty over their territorial waters. Ghalibaf calls the MOU "America's declaration of defeat" on Iranian state television.
IMO launches evacuation of 11,000 stranded seafarers
The International Maritime Organization announces it is coordinating the evacuation of more than 11,000 stranded seafarers from the Persian Gulf region — the largest maritime evacuation operation since the crisis began. The operation is coordinated with Iran, Oman, the US, and the maritime industry. Oman's National Hydrographic Office makes a "temporary maritime corridor" available through the strait. Transit volumes reach approximately 24 vessels in 24 hours — still well below the pre-war average of 110 per day. Israel-Lebanon talks begin in Washington.
Read full analysis →Four working groups established — technical talks conclude
Technical talks in Switzerland conclude with Iran and the US agreeing to establish four formal negotiating working groups: Sanctions Termination, Nuclear Affairs, Iran Reconstruction and Economic Development, and Monitoring and Implementation. Iran's Deputy FM Gharibabadi confirms the groups via IRNA. Trump claims Iran agreed to nuclear inspections "into infinity" — Iran's foreign ministry says real nuclear negotiations "haven't started yet." Ghalibaf, returning from Switzerland, tells state media: "The strait will be managed by Iran and will follow international laws."
Trump threatens US tolls if 60-day deal not completed
Trump posts on Truth Social that there will be "NO TOLLS in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the Cease Fire Period" — but warns that after 60 days, the US may impose its own tolls "for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East" if a final deal is not completed. Iran's toll plans and the US counter-toll threat represent a new front in the post-MOU dispute over who controls the waterway.
Record 16 million barrels transit the strait in a single day
Vice President Vance confirms that 16 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz on June 21 — a single-day record surpassing even pre-war volumes. "That is a record going back to even before the conflict started," Vance tells Fox News. The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon records no attacks from either side on June 21 — the first attack-free day since the Israel-Hezbollah conflict began on March 2. Technical talks between US and Iranian delegations continue at Bürgenstock. Ghalibaf and Araghchi lead the Iranian delegation. Witkoff and Kushner lead for the US.
Technical talks begin in Switzerland — status CONTESTED
US and Iranian technical delegations begin negotiations in Switzerland on implementation of the June 17 MOU — including the uranium stockpile, enrichment moratorium, and IAEA verification. The strait's status remains contested: Iran's military declared it closed on June 20, but Iran's foreign ministry said shipping was "operating normally." US CENTCOM reports traffic still flowing with 55 ships transiting on June 21. The central channel remains mined. Both a military closure and a diplomatic process are operating simultaneously.
Switzerland talks: roadmap agreed, IAEA invited back
The first round of high-level US-Iran negotiations at the Bürgenstock resort overlooking Lake Lucerne concludes with both sides agreeing to "a road map" to reach a final deal within 60 days. Qatar and Pakistan mediators announce "encouraging progress" and "immediate commencement of technical talks." Iran agrees to invite IAEA inspectors back into the country — Vance calls it "a major milestone and the first step in permanently ending a nuclear weapons programme." A direct communication hotline is established between US and Iranian delegations "to avoid incidents and miscommunication with the aim of safe passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz." Iran's President Pezeshkian states: "We will never back down from the right to enrich uranium." Talks are expected to continue through the week.
Read full analysis →Iran re-declares Hormuz closed — IRGC vs foreign ministry contradict each other
Iran's IRGC military command declares the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessel traffic, citing Israel's continued strikes in southern Lebanon as a "blatant breach" of the MOU and US failure to honour commitments. The closure is described as "the first step of response" with further measures planned if aggression continues. However, Iran's foreign ministry contradicts the military within hours, telling Tasnim news that shipping is "operating normally." VP Vance tells Fox News: "The straits really are open — we are not seeing any evidence that the Iranians are still closing down the Strait of Hormuz." US CENTCOM reports commercial ship traffic increased on June 20.
Read full analysis →Trump announces renewed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
Trump announces a renewed ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, facilitated by the US, Qatar, and Iran — attempting to address the Lebanon clause that has threatened the MOU since signing. Hezbollah announces an attack on Israeli forces in Nabatieh simultaneously. Israel continues strikes in southern Lebanon regardless. The ceasefire announcement fails to hold within 24 hours.
Strait reopens — 25 transits recorded, blockade officially lifted
The first full day of commercial reopening following the June 17 signing. Traffic hits a two-month high with 25 transits according to AXSMarine, predominantly Chinese-affiliated tonnage. CENTCOM officially lifts the US naval blockade. Pakistan announces the MOU implies Tehran will reopen the strait "instantly." Three Iranian supertankers carrying a combined 3.8 million barrels of crude exit the blockade perimeter — Iran's first crude exports in two months. Major Western carriers including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd remain on Cape of Good Hope routing. War risk insurance still at 8x pre-crisis levels. Central channel remains mined.
Read full analysis →MOU signed at Versailles — the Islamabad Agreement
Trump signs the memorandum of understanding during dinner with French President Macron at the Palace of Versailles following the G7 summit. Iranian President Pezeshkian signs for Tehran. The agreement — formally known as the Islamabad MOU — covers: end of hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon; toll-free strait reopening for 60 days; Iran clears mines within 30 days; US naval blockade lifted proportionally; Iran receives sanctions waivers and frozen asset release; US troops withdraw from Iranian territory; 60-day nuclear negotiation window begins. Iran's Foreign Ministry confirms: "Now it is time to test the implementation."
Read full analysis →JMIC downgrades Hormuz threat level — first reduction since crisis began
The Joint Maritime Information Center, the US-led maritime security body headquartered in Bahrain, downgrades the Hormuz threat level from "SEVERE" to "SUBSTANTIAL" — the first downgrade since the crisis began. The JMIC notes that IRGC behaviour "has become less volatile" following the deal announcement. However, the advisory warns that "an attack is still a strong possibility" and that mines remain in the waterway — "caution is advised on all approaches." Strait traffic remains significantly reduced. The threat level had been classified "CRITICAL" as recently as June 4.
Doha preparatory meetings ahead of Switzerland signing
Both sides meet separately with Qatari mediators in Doha — the final diplomatic checkpoint before Friday's formal signing in Switzerland. The meetings are designed to align each side's delegations on implementation sequencing: the order in which the US lifts the naval blockade, Iran begins mine clearance, and sanctions relief is triggered. No joint session is held; Qatar shuttles between the two parties.
Israel strikes Beirut — deal under immediate threat
Israel strikes Hezbollah positions in Beirut hours after the US-Iran deal is announced. Iran made the end of fighting in Lebanon a condition of the agreement. Israeli Defence Minister Katz states Israel will not withdraw from Lebanese territory. Trump, at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, says Israel "shouldn't have" struck Beirut. IRGC-affiliated Fars News reports the final MOU text explicitly affirms Iranian and Omani sovereignty over the strait — and that toll-free passage will last only 60 days, after which Iran plans to charge vessels for navigation and environmental services. The US account describes toll-free passage as unconditional. The same fundamental contradiction that defined the entire crisis has reappeared within 24 hours of the deal being announced.
Read full analysis →Deal announced — signing set for June 19 in Switzerland
Trump posts on Truth Social: "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif confirms the deal includes "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." Iran's deputy foreign minister confirms the text is finalised and will be signed Friday June 19 in Switzerland. Qatari mediators spent 17 hours in intensive negotiations in Tehran before the breakthrough. Brent crude falls more than 4.5% to $80 a barrel — its lowest level since before the war began. The US naval blockade is immediately authorised to end.
Read full analysis →CENTCOM downs multiple Iranian drones as deal is finalised
Even as the final deal text is being agreed, Iran launches several one-way attack drones targeting commercial shipping near the strait. CENTCOM shoots them all down. "The international trade corridor remains open for transit," CENTCOM posts on X. The pattern of simultaneous military escalation and diplomatic progress that has defined this crisis continues to the very end.
Final text agreed — signing expected in Europe within days
US and Iranian negotiators, with Pakistani mediation, reach agreement on the final text of a draft peace deal. Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif confirms: "A final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached. Peace has never been this close as it is now." A senior US official confirms Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei is "comfortable" with the negotiations and that Iran is committing "indefinitely to never procure or develop nuclear weapons." Trump says signing could happen "maybe over the weekend in Europe" with VP Vance attending. Iranian FM Araghchi says the MOU "has never been closer." Oil falls to under $87/barrel — its lowest since the crisis began.
Trump cancels strikes; Qatari breakthrough; deal "this weekend"
Trump posts on Truth Social that he has cancelled planned strikes after discussions were "brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved." Qatari negotiators in Tehran reported "breakthroughs" after talks until early morning. Trump announces a new 60-day ceasefire and says a deal could be signed "as early as this weekend." Iran's Foreign Ministry calls reports of a finalised deal "merely speculation."
IRGC strikes US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan
In retaliation for US strikes on Iranian ports and islands, the IRGC launches drone attacks on the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain and Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait, and fires a long-range missile at Azraq airbase in Jordan. The crisis has now spread to US military bases across three countries simultaneously.
US launches retaliatory strikes after Apache shoot-down
CENTCOM launches self-defence strikes between 10pm and 1am GMT, targeting Iranian air defence systems, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites at Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and Jask. CENTCOM describes the strikes as "a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression." Both Apache crew members were rescued safely by an unmanned sea drone.
Iran shoots down US Army Apache helicopter over the strait
An Iranian drone brings down a US Army Apache helicopter patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump posts: "The United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack." Two officials say it remains unclear whether the helicopter was intentionally targeted. Both crew members rescued safely. Trump had said just the previous evening that there was "a good chance" of signing a deal in "two or three days."
Iran attacks Kuwait airport and Bahrain
Iranian strikes hit Kuwait airport and Bahrain, condemned by Middle East countries. The IRGC hardliner faction appears to be actively escalating while diplomatic negotiations continue — a pattern seen throughout the crisis. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei declares that US military bases in the Middle East are "no longer safe."
Iran briefly suspends negotiations after Israeli Beirut threat
Iranian state media announces Tehran is suspending negotiations after Israel threatens to attack a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut. Trump has a heated exchange with Netanyahu. Within hours, talks are back on track. Trump tells ABC News he believes a deal is reachable "over the next week" but says "I still have to get a few more points."
US fires Hellfire missile into cargo ship engine
The US military disables a Gambian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman by firing a Hellfire missile into its engine after it allegedly attempted to break through the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. CENTCOM confirms the operation. The blockade has now turned away more than 100 commercial vessels.
Three-month mark: Axios reports deal reached at negotiator level
Exactly three months after the crisis began, Axios reports that US and Iranian negotiators have reached a tentative agreement — but Trump has not signed off and Iran's Supreme Leader has not endorsed it. The MOU would see the strait fully reopen over 60 days with both sides withdrawing in synchronised steps. Iran's parliament simultaneously prepares a vote to enshrine Iranian sovereignty over the strait into law.
Read full analysis →Trump threatens to "blow up" Oman
At a Cabinet meeting, Trump says: "Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we'll have to blow them up" — apparently unaware that Oman is the primary back-channel mediator between Washington and Tehran, and that most of the Strait of Hormuz lies in Iranian and Omani territorial waters. Treasury Secretary Bessent simultaneously threatens Oman with sanctions. Oman's FM pushes back, maintaining that "significant progress" has been made in talks. The confrontation is resolved within 24 hours after Oman provides assurances it will not toll the strait.
Read full analysis →Talks intensify in Doha
Senior Iranian officials return from "intense" Doha negotiations; talks described as "generally positive." Trump expected to convene Cabinet at Camp David. Sticking points remain: nuclear terms, sanctions timing, and ceasefire violations. The US blockade has now turned away more than 100 vessels.
US conducts self-defence strikes on Iranian vessels
CENTCOM conducts strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats near the strait. Iran allows 25 vessels to transit under navy coordination simultaneously — a remarkable juxtaposition of military action and selective commercial access.
Trump: deal "largely negotiated"
Trump posts on Truth Social that "an agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization." Iran disputes the characterisation, with state media insisting the strait would remain under Iranian management. A senior Iranian source confirms Tehran has not agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile.
US Senate advances war powers resolution
The Senate advances a war powers resolution challenging the legal basis of the Iran war. Four Republicans break with the White House: Paul, Collins, Murkowski, and Cassidy. The resolution is blocked in the House — the seventh time a war powers measure has been killed.
Read full analysis →Trump calls off planned Iran strike at Gulf allies' request
Trump reveals he was one hour from ordering a "very major attack" on Iran — and called it off at the request of Gulf allies who believe a deal is close. "There seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out," Trump says. "Hopefully, maybe forever."
Read full analysis →Bond markets sell off globally
In a single session: US 10-year Treasury yields climb above 4.5%; Japan's 30-year borrowing costs hit an all-time high; UK long-bond yields reach a 28-year high; S&P 500 falls more than 1%. The Hormuz crisis transitions from an energy story to a macro financial event.
Read full analysis →Trump-Xi Beijing summit — Hormuz on the agenda
Trump meets Xi in Beijing. The White House readout says both sides agreed the strait "must remain open." Xi offered to help broker peace and committed to not providing military equipment to Iran. China's Foreign Ministry readout makes no mention of Iran or Hormuz. Around 30 vessels transit the strait in the following 48 hours.
Read full analysis →Saudi Aramco CEO: normalisation not until 2027
Saudi Aramco's CEO warns that if the strait stays closed a few more weeks, market normalisation won't happen until 2027. Even if reopened today, "it would still take months for the market to rebalance."
Iran's counter-proposal rejected — "totally unacceptable"
Iran's counter-proposal demands US recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and compensation for war damages. The nuclear programme is not mentioned. Trump's response: "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Iran: "We will never bow." Brent crude rises nearly 5% to above $105.
Read full analysis →Iran submits 14-point counter-proposal to Pakistan
Iran submits its formal response to the MOU via Pakistani mediators — a 14-point counter to the US 9-point plan. Trump reviews it. Pakistan's foreign ministry: "Our hope and expectation is for an agreement sooner rather than later."
Iran shoots down US MQ-9 Reaper drone
Iranian media releases video of debris from a drone it claims to have shot down over the strait. Independent analysts identify components consistent with a US MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance drone. CENTCOM does not confirm or deny.
MOU framework confirmed — 14-point deal circulated
A one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding is confirmed as circulating between Washington and Tehran via Pakistani mediators. Key provisions: 60-day ceasefire, strait reopens with no tolls, Iran clears mines, US lifts blockade, Iran gets sanctions waivers. Nuclear provisions remain the sharpest sticking point.
Read full analysis →Project Freedom paused; Araghchi flies to Beijing
Trump announces Project Freedom is paused "for a short period" citing progress toward a "complete and final agreement." Iran's FM Araghchi arrives in Beijing for talks with Wang Yi. CENTCOM confirms the blockade has turned away 52 vessels.
Iran strikes UAE — Fujairah Oil Industry Zone hit
Iran launches 15 missiles and 4 drones at the UAE. One drone strikes the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone — terminus of the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, the UAE's primary Hormuz bypass route. Three Indian nationals wounded. A residential building in Oman is also struck.
Read full analysis →Project Freedom launches
Trump announces "Project Freedom" — a US military operation to guide commercial vessels through the strait, backed by guided-missile destroyers, 100+ aircraft, unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members. Two US-flagged vessels successfully transit. Iran fires on US ships — none struck. France publicly breaks with the operation.
Read full analysis →US launches Maritime Freedom Construct
The State Department sends a cable to every US embassy worldwide recruiting allies for a new US-led maritime coalition called the "Maritime Freedom Construct" — reversing Trump's March position that the US needed no help. The MFC is authorised by Secretary Rubio.
Read full analysis →Araghchi flies to Moscow; Putin vows support
Iran's FM Araghchi meets Putin at the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library. Putin praises Iran for "bravely fighting for sovereignty" and vows to do "everything possible" for Middle East peace. Russia floats proposal to take custody of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile.
Read full analysis →Starmer calls Trump; 12+ nations formally committed
UK PM Starmer calls Trump to report that more than 12 countries have formally volunteered to join the Northwood coalition's freedom-of-navigation mission. 38 nations sign the Northwood joint statement.
Iran launches second mining campaign
The IRGC deploys a second round of mines in the strait. Trump orders the Navy to "shoot and kill" any Iranian boats caught laying mines "with no hesitation." USS Chief and USS Pioneer, both 1990s-era wooden-hulled vessels, arrive for mine-clearing operations.
Read full analysis →Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely
Trump announces an indefinite extension of the ceasefire at Pakistan's request, giving Iran time to "come up with a unified proposal." The U.S. naval blockade continues regardless.
Northwood conference: 30+ nations plan Hormuz mission
Military planners from more than 30 nations gather at the UK's Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood. The conference uses UK national command structure rather than NATO to allow non-NATO partners to participate. Italy commits four vessels; Ukraine's minehunters discussed.
Read full analysis →US seizes Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska
The US Navy intercepts and boards the M/V Touska — a 900-foot sanctioned Iranian cargo ship — in the Gulf of Oman after it refused to stop. Iran condemns the seizure as "armed piracy."
IRGC fires on ships — ceasefire collapses again
Within 24 hours of the "opening," IRGC gunboats fire on vessels attempting to transit, including Indian, French, and UK-flagged ships. The strait effectively closes again. India files a formal complaint with Tehran.
Read full analysis →Iran declares strait "fully open" — crude falls 10%
Iran's FM Araghchi posts on X that the Strait of Hormuz is "fully open and ready for full passage." Brent crude tumbles more than 10%. Trump posts "Thank you!" — but the ceasefire interpretations remain incompatible.
Read full analysis →Paris summit: 51 nations, UK-France coalition announced
A Paris summit chaired by Starmer and Macron brings together 51 nations. The UK and France announce they will co-lead a defensive multinational mission to reopen the strait once peace conditions allow. The US does not attend.
Read full analysis →Iran warns strait reopening "impossible"
Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf warns that "reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible" as long as the U.S. naval blockade continues. The warning goes largely unheeded in Western markets.
US begins naval blockade of Iranian ports
Washington begins enforcing a naval blockade of Iranian ports — a move Iran immediately characterises as a ceasefire violation. The structural gap in ceasefire interpretation emerges: Iran sees the blockade as a violation; the US sees it as a separate economic measure.
Read full analysis →US mine-clearing operations begin
USS Frank E. Petersen and USS Michael Murphy transit the strait to "set conditions" for mine clearance operations, according to CENTCOM.
First ceasefire agreed
Trump announces a two-week ceasefire. Iran's FM Araghchi agrees "if attacks against Iran are halted." Iran's Supreme National Security Council claims a historic victory, asserting the US accepted Tehran's 10-point plan. Brent crude falls 15.9% to $92.30 a barrel.
Trump extends deadline; threatens infrastructure
Trump extends the Iran deadline to April 6, holding off on strikes on energy plants. Iran again refuses to negotiate under pressure. War risk insurance premiums reach 16x pre-crisis levels.
US strikes escalate; Iran fires on Israel
Heavy strikes reported in Tehran and other Iranian cities. Iran launches missile barrages at Israel. Sirens sound across Tel Aviv. Israel deploys additional troops into southern Lebanon.
Iran announces selective access list
Iran announces that ships owned by five nations — China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan — are granted permission to transit the strait. Malaysian and Thai vessels are later added following diplomatic talks.
Trump sets 10-day ultimatum for Iran
Trump gives Iran 10 days to either "make a deal" or open the Strait of Hormuz, warning of strikes on power plants and bridges. Iran rejects the ultimatum, stating it will not negotiate under pressure.
Iran sends Trump a "significant present"
Trump announces in the Oval Office that Iran has sent "a very significant gift" related to the Strait of Hormuz — signalling early back-channel contact between the two sides.
Trump demands allied warships — all decline
Trump publicly calls on NATO, China, Japan, and South Korea to send military vessels to help secure the strait. Every ally declines. German Defence Minister Pistorius: "This is not our war."
Supply disruption exceeds 10 million barrels per day
The IEA characterises the closure as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market — surpassing the 1973 OPEC embargo. Tanker spot rates triple overnight.
Gulf oil production collapses
Oil production across Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE falls by a reported 6.7 million barrels per day as tankers cannot transit the strait. Shipping operators begin rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope.
Oil price shock: Brent surges past $100
Brent crude climbs from $75 to above $100 a barrel within days of the closure. Global shipping insurance premiums begin rising sharply. GCC states face immediate disruption to export revenues.
Operation Epic Fury begins
The United States and Israel launch coordinated air and missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, IRGC bases, and missile infrastructure. Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz closed to all commercial traffic not granted explicit Iranian permission.