Alternative Shipping Routes
When the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the world has limited options for moving Persian Gulf oil and gas to market. Here is every major alternative — what it can handle, what it costs, and where it falls short.
At a Glance
Normal Hormuz throughput is roughly 20 million barrels per day. All known bypass alternatives combined can handle at most ~10 million bbl/day — and that assumes every pipeline runs at full capacity and ships reroute via the Cape simultaneously. In practice, a full Hormuz closure leaves a gap of at least 10 million barrels per day with no short-term fix.
Cape of Good Hope
MARITIMEThe primary fallback for tankers and bulk carriers. Ships sail south around the African continent instead of through the Suez Canal and Persian Gulf.
Advantages
- No capacity constraints — open ocean route
- Avoids all Middle Eastern chokepoints
- Well-established route with port infrastructure along the way
- No transit fees (unlike Suez Canal)
Disadvantages
- Significantly longer transit time increases fuel costs
- Higher crew costs and vessel wear
- Rough seas around the Cape, especially in winter
- Delays cascade through supply chains — more ships needed to maintain the same delivery rate
- Piracy risk off East Africa (though reduced in recent years)
Analysis
During the 2024 Red Sea crisis caused by Houthi attacks, many shipping lines rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, providing a real-world test of this alternative. Container shipping rates roughly doubled and transit times increased by 10–14 days. The key lesson: the route works, but the global shipping fleet doesn’t have enough spare capacity to absorb the longer voyages without significant price increases. Every ship spending an extra two weeks at sea is a ship that can’t make its next scheduled voyage.
East-West Pipeline (Petroline)
PIPELINESaudi Arabia’s strategic bypass pipeline running from oil fields in the Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, completely bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Advantages
- Completely bypasses the Strait of Hormuz
- Already built and operational since 1981
- Significant spare capacity available
- Direct access to Red Sea → Suez Canal → Europe
Disadvantages
- Only serves Saudi crude — doesn’t help Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, or Qatar
- Capacity is a fraction of normal Hormuz throughput (~20M bbl/day)
- Yanbu port has limited tanker berths compared to Ras Tanura
- Vulnerable to regional instability (2019 Abqaiq attack demonstrated this)
- Cannot transport LNG — oil only
Analysis
The Petroline was built as a strategic hedge after the 1970s oil crises. It has been expanded multiple times and can carry Arab Light and Arab Heavy crude grades. At full capacity, it could move about 5 million barrels per day, but it typically operates below capacity. During a Hormuz closure, Saudi Aramco could ramp up Petroline throughput, but it would cover only about 25% of the oil that normally transits the strait. The 2019 drone and missile attack on Abqaiq, the pipeline’s origin point, temporarily knocked out 5.7 million bbl/day of Saudi processing capacity, highlighting that the pipeline itself has vulnerabilities.
Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP)
PIPELINEThe UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, built specifically to give Abu Dhabi an export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
Advantages
- Exits directly to the Gulf of Oman, fully bypassing Hormuz
- Fujairah is the world’s second-largest bunkering port
- Operational since 2012 with proven reliability
- Strategic insurance policy for UAE oil exports
Disadvantages
- Limited to 1.5M bbl/day — a small fraction of Hormuz traffic
- Only serves UAE crude production
- Fujairah storage and loading capacity has limits
- Cannot transport LNG or refined products
Analysis
ADCOP was a direct response to Iran’s repeated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. The 360-kilometer pipeline cost approximately $3.3 billion and took two years to build. It gives the UAE the ability to export roughly half its crude production without using the strait. Fujairah has also become a major oil storage hub, with tank farms holding millions of barrels. However, even at full capacity, ADCOP handles less than 8% of normal Hormuz throughput.
Iraq–Turkey Pipeline (Kirkuk-Ceyhan)
PIPELINEA pipeline carrying Iraqi crude from northern oil fields to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, bypassing both the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Advantages
- Completely bypasses Hormuz and the Persian Gulf
- Direct access to the Mediterranean and European markets
- Existing infrastructure, operational since 1977
Disadvantages
- Frequently disrupted by conflict, sabotage, and political disputes
- Only serves Iraqi Kurdish and northern Iraqi crude
- Shut down for extended periods (e.g., 2023–2024 due to Iraq–Turkey dispute)
- Capacity is limited and infrastructure is aging
- Doesn’t help Gulf states (Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar)
Analysis
The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has had a turbulent history. Originally built to diversify Iraq’s export routes, it has been repeatedly damaged during conflicts and shut down during political disputes between Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and Turkey. When operational, it provides an important non-Hormuz route for Iraqi oil to reach Mediterranean markets. However, its reliability issues mean it cannot be counted on as a dependable alternative during a Hormuz crisis. Iraq has periodically discussed building additional pipeline capacity through Turkey or Jordan, but these projects remain in planning stages.
Suez Canal + SUMED Pipeline
COMBINEDWhile not a Hormuz bypass per se, oil loaded at Red Sea terminals (e.g., from the Saudi Petroline) can reach the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the parallel SUMED pipeline across Egypt.
Advantages
- Major existing infrastructure with high throughput
- Two parallel systems (canal + pipeline) provide redundancy
- Shortens Europe-bound routes compared to Cape of Good Hope
- SUMED pipeline can handle very large crude oil volumes
Disadvantages
- Only useful if oil first reaches the Red Sea (requires Petroline or other bypass)
- Suez Canal is itself a chokepoint vulnerable to disruption (2021 Ever Given, 2024 Houthi crisis)
- High transit fees for large tankers
- Does not bypass Hormuz directly — requires a separate bypass to reach the Red Sea
Analysis
The SUMED (Suez-Mediterranean) pipeline runs 320 km across Egypt from Ain Sukhna on the Gulf of Suez to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean. It was built to handle oil that would be too costly or slow to move through the Suez Canal in very large tankers (VLCCs). In a Hormuz scenario, the Suez/SUMED combination becomes critical for moving Saudi crude that reaches Yanbu via the Petroline onward to European refineries. Combined, the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline can handle roughly 5 million barrels per day of crude oil, but this only matters if the oil can first get to the Red Sea.
The LNG Problem
Every bypass pipeline listed above carries crude oil only. None can transport liquefied natural gas (LNG). Qatar — the world's largest LNG exporter — has no pipeline bypass whatsoever. All Qatari LNG must transit the Strait of Hormuz by ship. This means a Hormuz closure effectively removes Qatar's entire LNG output from global markets, with severe consequences for gas-dependent economies in Asia and Europe.