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Can Pipelines Bypass the Strait of Hormuz?

Three major pipelines can move oil from the Persian Gulf to export terminals outside the Strait of Hormuz. Together they have a theoretical capacity of roughly 7.5 million barrels per day — but the strait normally carries over 20 million. Here's why pipelines alone can't solve a Hormuz closure.

Pipeline Capacity vs Strait Throughput

~20M
bbl/day through Hormuz
~7.5M
bbl/day pipeline capacity
~37%
of strait flow replaceable
~12.5M
bbl/day shortfall
🇸🇦

Petroline (East-West Pipeline)

5M bbl/day
Design capacity
1,200 km
Length
1981
Commissioned

Saudi Arabia's Petroline runs from the Abqaiq oil processing facility in the Eastern Province to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea coast. It is the largest Hormuz bypass pipeline and was originally built during the Iran-Iraq War precisely to reduce dependence on the strait.

Key Limitations

Saudi-only: carries only Saudi Arabian crude. Other Gulf producers (Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar) cannot use it.
Not fully utilized: normally runs at 2–3M bbl/day. Ramping to 5M requires weeks and competes with domestic refinery demand at Yanbu.
Vulnerable: the pipeline crosses 1,200 km of desert. The 2019 Abqaiq drone attack showed that Saudi oil infrastructure is targetable.
Single export point: Yanbu port must handle the increased tanker traffic, creating a new bottleneck.
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🇦🇪

ADCOP (Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline)

1.5M bbl/day
Design capacity
370 km
Length
2012
Commissioned

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) runs from the Habshan gas processing complex in Abu Dhabi to the Fujairah export terminal on the Gulf of Oman — just outside the Strait of Hormuz. It was built explicitly as a strategic bypass.

Key Limitations

UAE-only: carries only UAE (ADNOC) crude. Cannot serve Iraq, Kuwait, or Qatar.
Limited capacity: 1.5M bbl/day is significant but covers only ~7.5% of Hormuz throughput.
Fujairah proximity: the Fujairah terminal is only ~100 km from the strait's narrowest point, within range of anti-ship missiles.
Single grade: primarily Murban crude. Limited flexibility for different crude blends.
🇮🇶

Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline

1M bbl/day
Design capacity (reduced)
970 km
Length
1977
Commissioned

Iraq's Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline runs from the Kirkuk oil fields in northern Iraq through southeastern Turkey to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. It provides Iraq's only significant export route that doesn't transit the Persian Gulf.

Key Limitations

Iraq-only: serves only northern Iraqi crude (Kirkuk blend). Southern Iraqi exports still go through the Gulf.
Chronically damaged: sabotage, PKK attacks, and poor maintenance have kept the pipeline below capacity for years.
Political dependency: Turkey controls the Ceyhan terminal. Turkey-Iraq disputes have shut the pipeline for months at a time.
Aging infrastructure: the pipeline is nearly 50 years old with limited pumping station upgrades.
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What About LNG? No Pipeline Option

While crude oil has limited pipeline bypass options, liquefied natural gas has none. Qatar — the world's largest LNG exporter — has no pipeline connecting it to any terminal outside the Persian Gulf. Every cubic meter of Qatari LNG must transit the Strait of Hormuz by ship.

Building an LNG pipeline is impractical: LNG must be kept at -162°C, making long-distance pipelines prohibitively expensive compared to tanker transport. This means roughly 25% of global LNG trade has zero bypass option during a Hormuz closure.

Pipeline Bypass Summary

PipelineCountryCapacityExport Terminal
PetrolineSaudi Arabia5.0M bbl/dayYanbu (Red Sea)
ADCOPUAE1.5M bbl/dayFujairah (Gulf of Oman)
Kirkuk-CeyhanIraq1.0M bbl/dayCeyhan (Mediterranean)
Total7.5M bbl/dayvs ~20M through Hormuz

Even at full theoretical capacity, these pipelines can replace less than 40% of what flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain have no pipeline bypass options. The conclusion is clear: pipelines reduce vulnerability but cannot eliminate dependence on the strait.

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