{"success":true,"data":{"straitStatus":{"status":"RESTRICTED","since":"2026-02-28","description":"Strait effectively closed to most commercial shipping; only selective transits under strict Iranian control or US escort through southern corridor. Partial reopening under 60-day MOU expires August 17, 2026. Multiple attacks on vessels today (July 7) by Iran testing fragility of agreement."},"shipCount":{"currentTransits":27,"last24h":27,"normalDaily":60,"percentOfNormal":32.1},"oilPrice":{"brentPrice":71.59,"change24h":1.43,"changePercent24h":2.04,"sparkline":[97.11,95.47,92.88,98.29,98.49,101.69,98.98,97.29,97.46,94.15,95.73,92.84,88.64,84.36,80.5,80.33,79.35,80.46,76.49,75.69,72.09,73.74,70.16,71.59]},"strandedVessels":{"total":56,"tankers":35,"bulk":12,"other":9,"changeToday":2},"insurance":{"level":"EXTREME","warRiskPercent":1.2,"normalPercent":0.15,"multiplier":8},"throughput":{"todayDWT":2780000,"averageDWT":10300000,"percentOfNormal":27,"last7Days":[2850000,2920000,2780000,2650000,2920000,3050000,2780000]},"diplomacy":{"status":"TALKS_IN_PROGRESS","headline":"US-Iran 60-day MOU Window 17 Days Old; Fresh Tanker Attacks Test Ceasefire","date":"2026-07-07","parties":["United States","Iran","Qatar","Pakistan","Oman"],"summary":"US and Iran in indirect talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan since June 17 MOU. Focus on maritime traffic management and sanctions relief, not nuclear issues. Iran's lead negotiator demands fees for passage after August 17; US refuses Iranian toll authority. Separate meetings in Qatar continuing; Trump warned Iran must 'make a deal' Monday."},"globalTradeImpact":{"percentOfWorldOilAtRisk":21,"estimatedDailyCostBillions":2.8,"affectedRegions":[{"name":"Japan","severity":"CRITICAL","oilDependencyPercent":90,"description":"Critically dependent on Hormuz; LNG imports severely restricted. Prices up 45% from pre-crisis levels."},{"name":"South Korea","severity":"CRITICAL","oilDependencyPercent":80,"description":"High oil import dependency; forced to use alternative routes at significant cost premium."},{"name":"China","severity":"HIGH","oilDependencyPercent":40,"description":"Reduced crude imports to 5.2m bpd in May from 11m bpd pre-crisis. Recovering to 6.7m bpd in June."},{"name":"India","severity":"HIGH","oilDependencyPercent":60,"description":"Unable to procure tankers at current rates; facing severe supply constraints and refining cutbacks."},{"name":"EU","severity":"MODERATE","oilDependencyPercent":20,"description":"Lower dependency but facing elevated shipping costs; benefits from alternative Atlantic-to-Asia flows."}],"lngImpact":{"percentOfWorldLngAtRisk":25,"estimatedLngDailyCostBillions":1.2,"topAffectedImporters":["Japan","South Korea","China"],"description":"Qatar LNG carrier struck today; flows severely restricted. Asian buyers shifting to spot market at 200-300% premiums. Liquefaction shut-ins in Iran reducing global supply."},"alternativeRoutes":[{"name":"Cape of Good Hope","additionalDays":12,"additionalCostPerVessel":650,"currentUsageStatus":"Heavily used by major Western carriers (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM); now primary route. Capacity constraints emerging."},{"name":"East-West Crude Oil Pipeline","additionalDays":0,"additionalCostPerVessel":0,"currentUsageStatus":"Saudi Arabia diverting 5 mbpd capacity via Yanbu port; operating at max capacity."},{"name":"Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline","additionalDays":0,"additionalCostPerVessel":0,"currentUsageStatus":"UAE operating 1.5 mbpd via Fujairah; constrained by mine threats and insurance premiums in Omani waters."},{"name":"Oman Coastal Route","additionalDays":2,"additionalCostPerVessel":200,"currentUsageStatus":"US-guided southern corridor operational but Iran controls northern lane (mined). Mine clearance ongoing; JWC high-risk designation persists."}],"supplyChainImpact":{"shippingRateIncreasePercent":75,"consumerPriceImpactPercent":3.2,"sprStatusDays":67,"keyDisruptions":["Container shipping rates up 51-75% on China-US routes; major carriers suspended Hormuz transits","US SPR drawdown limited by structural heel constraints; max 4.4m bpd withdrawal rate unsustainable beyond ~67 days","Middle East refinery damage (Ras Tanura struck) reducing product availability; Asian refinery runs unlikely to recover until 4Q 2026","Brent crude at $72.13 (down from $105+ in May due to global oversupply fears as tankers resume loading)"]}},"crisisTimeline":{"events":[{"date":"2026-02-28","type":"ESCALATION","title":"Operation Epic Fury - US-Israel Air Campaign Begins","description":"US and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran responds with missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases."},{"date":"2026-03-04","type":"MILITARY","title":"Iran Declares Strait Closed","description":"Iran announces closure of Strait of Hormuz and threatens to attack any vessel attempting passage. IRGC issues warnings, boards ships, lays mines."},{"date":"2026-04-13","type":"MILITARY","title":"US Naval Blockade Begins","description":"US simultaneously blockades Iranian ports while Iran maintains closure of Strait. Hundreds of tankers stranded in Persian Gulf."},{"date":"2026-06-17","type":"DIPLOMATIC","title":"US-Iran MOU Signed","description":"60-day memorandum of understanding agreed: toll-free transits for 60 days, US blockade to lift by July 19, Iran to restore pre-war traffic levels."},{"date":"2026-07-04","type":"DIPLOMATIC","title":"Trump-Xi Meeting in Beijing","description":"Trump meets Xi Jinping; both agree strait 'must remain open.' Xi offers to broker peace, commits to not arming Iran. Around 30 vessels transit following meeting."},{"date":"2026-07-07","type":"ESCALATION","title":"Multiple Ship Attacks Today","description":"Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayyat struck near Omani coast; Saudi tanker damaged exiting strait. Iran denies responsibility but state TV implies involvement. Testing ceasefire fragility."}]},"tankerRates":{"currentRate":296,"preCrisisRate":50,"changePercent":492,"route":"AG-China TD3C","vesselType":"VLCC","trend":[100,115,128,155,188,220,296],"unit":"WS"},"news":[{"title":"PM Modi shrinks convoy, pushes EV use after call to save fuel amid Iran war energy crisis","source":"The Indian Express","url":"https://indianexpress.com/article/india/pm-modi-convoy-size-reduction-spg-ev-austerity-fuel-crisis-10686677/","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 03:44:01","description":"PM Modi has cut his security convoy size and sought EVs in it amid the global energy crisis."},{"title":"Trump-Xi summit: Iran war, trade, Taiwan and AI on the agenda, why China has the upper hand","source":"The Indian Express","url":"https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/trump-xi-china-summit-iran-trade-taiwan-ai-10686659/","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 03:27:07","description":"While it is unclear where the West Asia conflict will go from here, even as an uneasy ceasefire continues to hold, China will likely play a crucial role in helping bring Iran back to the negotiating table in any constructive form"},{"title":"Commodity Corner: Crude Slips Below $107 as Middle East Conflict Persists; Gold Holds Decline","source":"Moneycontrol","url":"https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/commodity-corner-crude-slips-below-107-as-middle-east-conflict-persists-gold-holds-decline-13917498.html","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 03:22:53","description":"Indian government raised import duties on several categories of gold, silver and other precious metals imports to 15 percent from 6 percent, according to a finance ministry notification issued on Wednesday."},{"title":"US intel shows Iran retains missile capabilities despite Trump's claims","source":"Business Standard","url":"https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/us-intel-shows-iran-retains-missile-capabilities-despite-trump-s-claims-126051300134_1.html","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 03:19:48","description":"Secret new assessments say Iran has operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that its military remains far stronger than President Trump has asserted"},{"title":"Oil Dips After Three-Day Gain With Iran Peace Talks at Impasse","source":"Yahoo! News","url":"https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-steadies-after-three-day-gain-with-iran-flows-under-strain-003420794.html","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 03:02:55","description":"(Bloomberg) -- Oil slipped after rising almost 8% over the past three sessions as a resolution to the Middle East conflict remains elusive, with Iranian..."},{"title":"Trump heads to China as Iran war cost nears $29b amid rising tensions","source":"Gulf News","url":"https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/trump-heads-to-china-as-iran-war-cost-nears-29b-amid-rising-tensions-1.500538588","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 02:58:24","description":"Trump heads to China as Iran war cost nears $29b amid rising tensions"},{"title":"Iraq, Pakistan cut energy transit deals with Iran amid Tehran’s tightening grip over Hormuz","source":"Firstpost","url":"https://www.firstpost.com/business/iraq-pakistan-energy-deals-iran-hormuz-control-gulf-oil-lng-crisis-14010542.html","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 02:51:34","description":"Iraq and Pakistan have struck separate energy transit deals with Iran to secure oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting Tehran’s growing control over the strategic Gulf chokepoint amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict"},{"title":"Trump says no need for Xi's help on war as Iran tightens Hormuz grip","source":"Yahoo! News","url":"https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-says-no-xis-help-025029181.html","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 02:50:29","description":"STORY: Donald Trump said Tuesday he would have a talk with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the war in Iran during his upcoming trip to China. But when asked about possible Chinese involvement, the U.S. president offered a blunt response. \"I don't think we need any help with Iran, to be honest with you. They're defeated militarily, and they'll either do the right thing or we'll finish the job.\" His comments come as hopes for a lasting peace deal grow weaker and Iran strengthens its control over the Strait of Hormuz. More than a month after a shaky ceasefire began, the two sides have made little progress toward an agreement. According to sources, Tehran has struck new deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and natural gas through the area. Sources say other countries are considering similar deals, potentially making Iran's grip on the Strait more permanent. The Trump administration said Tuesday that top U.S. and Chinese officials agreed last month that no country should charge tolls on ships passing through the region. China, which has close ties with Iran and buys large amounts of its oil, did not challenge this statement. Trump is scheduled to meet Xi this week and is expected to urge China to press Iran to reach a deal with the United States. For its part, Tehran has demanded compensation for damage from the war and an end to the U.S. blockade. It also wants a full ceasefire across all fronts, including in Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah is fighting Israel. Trump has dismissed those demands as \"garbage\"."},{"title":"Gold, silver price today (May 13): International spot gold surges 0.50% to $4,710, silver 2.29% up on Comex; will MCX follow suit?","source":"Moneycontrol","url":"https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/gold-silver-price-today-may-13-internation-spot-gold-surges-0-50-to-4-710-silver-2-29-up-on-comex-will-mcx-follow-suit-13917349.html","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 02:49:41","description":"Despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, investor sentiment leans toward diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran."},{"title":"Geopolitical shift in ME","source":"Dawn","url":"https://www.dawn.com/news/1999825/geopolitical-shift-in-me","publishedAt":"2026-05-13 02:37:27","description":"US PRESIDENT Donald Trump is doing what he does best: keeping the world guessing with his puzzling declarations. He has rejected Iran’s latest proposal for peace talks, stating, “I don’t like it”. He has also threatened Iran with more strikes. He claims the ceasefire is now on “massive life support”. At the same time, he has asserted that he has achieved all his war objectives. What are we to make of such, often conflicting, statements? One thing that can be deduced from Trump’s declarations is that there is not going to be an end to one of the most consequential conflicts in recent history anytime soon. Interestingly, Trump’s public rejection of Iran’s peace proposal reportedly followed a telephone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Speaking to an American TV channel, Netanyahu warned that the war was not over and nuclear material still had to be taken out of Iran. According to him, “If necessary, we [the US and Israel] can re-engage them [Iran] militarily”. This reinforces suspicions that Israel is not in favour of any peace talks with Iran and is pushing the American president to end the ceasefire, just as it pressed him to launch the war. The ceasefire meant to facilitate peace talks came into effect in April and has been largely observed despite exchanges of fire and reports of strikes in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively continued to block. Meanwhile, Israel continues its bombing of Lebanon in blatant violation of the ceasefire there and is busy extending its borders. A prolonged conflict will have far-reaching implications for regional geopolitics, sharpening the divisions among Gulf countries that are directly affected by the tensions. The Gulf countries that have been closely aligned with the US seem to be divided over the growing perception that Trump is fighting Israel’s war. These countries were left vulnerable as Iran targeted American interests in the region. The divide became more apparent as some nations emphasised the need for peace talks to end the conflict. There have been significant financial and economic losses due to the dual blockade of the waterways that are critical to the global energy supply chain. It came as a rude shock to the American president when Saudi Arabia denied the US access to its airspace and military bases within the country. Reports indicate that the Saudi crown prince was upset with Trump’s announcement that the US military would escort ships through Hormuz. Trump’s announcement had heightened tensions with Iran, which threatened to attack ships passing through the strait without Tehran’s permission. Riyadh feared that this could lead to an escalation with Iran. Saudi action reportedly forced Trump to abandon his plan. Although Riyadh has now reversed its decisions on US overflights and the use of bases, it will not allow its territory to be used in support of the US naval operation Project Freedom — a rebuke that marks a significant shift in the kingdom’s position, especially on account of the economic devastation the region has suffered in the conflict. As recently as March, the Saudi crown prince reportedly wanted Trump to continue to bomb Iran to bring down the regime there. Saudi Arabia is now actively supporting efforts to end the conflict through peace talks mediated by Pakistan. It is part of an alliance that includes Pakistan, Egypt and Turkiye, which is facilitating the dialogue process. Saudi officials are in touch with their Iranian counterparts. The changing stance of the kingdom — for long America’s closest ally in the region — has increased apprehensions among other Gulf countries about being drawn into a prolonged conflict. The stalemate over the resumption of peace talks between Washington and Tehran is also a cause for concern for Saudi Arabia, as well as Qatar and Oman. American military sites in these countries have been targeted by Iran. It is evident that the US is primarily interested in protecting Israel, and the tension in ties between these countries and the US is becoming increasingly palpable. In contrast, the conflict has brought other Gulf countries, including the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, closer to the US. With US bases on their soil, they have borne the brunt of Iranian retaliation. The UAE, in particular, has been targeted by Iranian missiles and drones, which have had a devastating effect on its economy. As a result, it is now leaning heavily on the US and Israel — which it recognises under the Abraham Accords concluded during Trump’s first term — for its defence. The UAE’s collaboration with Israel has strengthened of late. While accusing the UAE of launching missile strikes, Iran has continued to target the country even during the ceasefire . The impact of Iranian missiles hitting civilian and business infrastructure in Dubai has been particularly significant. Meanwhile, UAE-Saudi relations have also become strained as the two countries find themselves on opposite sides in the regional civil wars in Yemen, Sudan and Libya. The UAE’s sudden decision to exit OPEC in the middle of the US-Iran conflict has raised questions about the fragile unity of the Gulf nations, which have controlled crude oil prices for decades. Moreover, the conflict with Iran and the schism among Gulf countries have given Israel a sense of impunity regarding its aggression in Lebanon. Gaza’s rehabilitation has also been sidelined, as Israel continues to maintain control over large portions of the territory. Under the cover of the war, Israel has expedited its efforts to annex the occupied West Bank . It is not surprising that the Zionist state opposes any moves to end the war with Iran, as this conflict has dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East — ostensibly to its advantage. The writer is an author and journalist. zhussain100@yahoo.com X: @hidhussain Published in Dawn, May 13th, 2026"}],"lastUpdated":"2026-07-07T16:15:28.558Z"},"timestamp":"2026-07-07T16:15:28.558Z"}